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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."