Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
