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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. However, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

But this year's field is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and recent strugglers ascending collectively. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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